Marketing has many avenues, and when we speak of slot machine marketing there are many focuses. One is the introduction of new games, and the second is ability to keep the interest of the player. There is at every marketing person’s fingertips information that allows them to profile the player, know the player, their likes and dislikes. This is a player’s loyalty system and slot accounting system.
Jun 14, 2013 The thing to keep in mind is the Volatility Index of a machine does not tell the casino how much money it will earn; the long-term payback does that. (In Nevada, every digital slots game must have a payback of 85%) What the Volatility Index does is measure how bumpy a ride it will be to that long-term payback percentage. At the same time, a machine with RTP of 94%, but with high volatility, can enable “generous” mode for a long time and heartily compensate for your long-suffering so much that your jaw will drop. What is the volatility and variance of online slots? The variance and volatility have the same meaning: they reveal how risky an online slot is.
Feb 24, 2011 Las Vegas discussion forum - Calculating volatility index of Slot Machine mini game, page 2.
Now when I mention likes and dislikes, I am not talking about that drink they like, or what days of the week they dislike coming to the casino. I am talking about their volatility profile as outlined by the machines they like to play. To know a player's volatility, marketing needs to know and understand the volatility of the machines the player likes to play. This (the players volatility profile) in itself can be an issue depending on the players playing habits.
What is a playing Habit?
In simple terms it is the 'standard routine of play the player does each time they come to the venue'. This can be complicated or simple. Below is a complicated example to help you to better understand these issues.
Player’s budget: $200.00, 3 hours (yes, time is a budget item)
What is volatility index for slot machines in simple terms?
In many cases volatility is expressed by, “low, medium or high”. This is NOT a volatility index! This simplistic defining scale is as detailed to say, 'I wear a large shirt'. This may be true.. I could wear a large shirt, but depending on the designer, it may fit tight or loose. Further, the sleeves may be too longer or too shorter for my arms, and the neck may be loose or tight; or it may fit just right. Getting it “just right” now becomes a low probability (less chance getting it right), as there are many attributes and variations to my fit.
Volatility of slot machines are the same way. So, what is volatility index? It is the calculated sum of each combination (winning or losing), known as its value (zero to maximum award), and how often this combination occurs in the total sum (all possible variations). Each combination has two attributes to it that are used for a volatility calculation:
Each combination is set by the manufacture to occur a number of times in the total combinations. This is calculated simply by calculating the number of the symbols (for each symbol) for that combination on each reel, then multiplying it by the number of that symbol on the next reel and so on.
Example:
By calculating this for each combination, winning and losing combination volatility can be calculated (will be fully explained on a different post detailing slot machine volatility calculations) and then a volatility index is calculated. The manufactures provide this information on their PAR (Program Accounting Report) sheet.
Issues with volatility exists with a few factors, these are:
Now that the volatility index is known as an overall volatility for that machine, this information needs to be recorded into a data base (or slot accounting system). In addition to volatility, features such as bonus types, free spins features, and game type/style with any other play attributes should to be recorded.
Combining player’s habits with volatility index and scaling.
Marketing now needs to look at the games the player plays, this is can be done easily by the use of a player's loyalty card. Now if the player does not use this card, the process is much harder to track. Assuming they do use the card, most systems will provide data on each game the player plays, such as:
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What is needed, is a way to tie the player's play to the data base; that has the games attributes such as volatility index and other attributes. This becomes an issue as many systems do not record this data. So, a separate data base can be created and merged on the back end, as simple as that sounds, it may be complicated.
For this example, we will assume that data is known and in the system. Now it’s a choice to use either total games played or total handle (money wagered) to decide on what percentage of data you want to use for play reference. In this example, I am using total games played. In the data collection, you want to be able to reference percentage minimums such as nothing lower than 15% of games played, this will help to weed out games they tried and did not like.
There is an issue with clones (games that have exact math models) that may not be liked, by the player depending on color or symbol designs, or its physical location on the gaming floor. This would be added to the percentage of play to a particular volatility index, but would be cut as a singular game from the total. To correct this, the data could be pulled by volatility index, total play then weeded out.
Example: Players plays:
Final ThoughtsUntil now, Twitch.tv has been a gem of the video game world. Also, it is their chance to show off the games that they offer as they are a direct representation of the quality of the casino. The casinos bank on their customers doing their homework when it comes to which casinos they can access, and if they have 2,000 people watching one of their streams, and 500 of them happen to be from an accepted region, it’s still a win. Gta online casino twitch prime. All of the above mentioned casinos host games from different combinations of the most popular game producers in the industry, PariPlay,. Gamers everywhere have been getting involved in the online community to enhance their own experience and become better at what they do.
The player’s volatility profile is a 12.76, this is calculated by the number of games played times the volatility of that game, then summing the totals (basically a weighted average).
Below is a spread sheeting showing the calculation Figure 1, Player's Volatility Profile:
Figure 1, Player's Volatility Profile
If we look at where 12.76 falls from the four samples above, it falls in line with the lowest number of games played (3,820). This becomes an issue as the lowest volatility game is 4.03 and the highest is 3.69 points away respectively.
From this, the players volatility scale needs to be created, where 12.76 is the center. From this number I recommend taking 33.33% and subtracting it from the 12.76, this becomes the lowest and add 33.33% to this number and this becomes the highest number.
Example:
This example 'player’s volatility evaluation' is one of the hardest to target since they play a large spread of volatility index games on a consistent basis.
There is a second evaluating that can be done using volatility index numbers and this is more simplistic and targeted. When a new game is introduced to the gaming floor, the players data base can be evaluated to find anyone that plays that volatility index within a particular range decided at the time of the evaluation (example: 8.50 +/- 1.25 points). Then find players that play at least 30% of their time on these machines. Now you need to evaluate this on a collective basis of all machines in this range, not just a single machine.
Either way it’s evaluated, you are now targeting your player, next is getting the information out to the player. Here is a simple form letter you can use. Note, the words in BOLD are information pulled from the data base to be entered into the form.
“Dear Mary,
Our Slot Director, Bob Smith just told me about a new game he put on the casino floor last week, it’s called, Pink Lemonade. Bob mentioned that you like to play Hot Balloons, Green Tomatoes and River Walk. Bob tells me that it plays very similar to these and has free spin bonus, random wilds, and is a cascade style game.
This new game Pink Lemonade, is located in Section 4, row 23, location 5, yes…I know this is not a big help, so if you head towards the buffet, then to the right of the buffet its between there and the bingo room. Or just ask any of our team members forsection 4, row 23, location 5 and they can take you to it.
Bob was very persistent I tell you about this game, so we are loading $20 on your account infree play just for this machine, and we are loading into your account $10 to use on any machine including this one if you like.
As always we welcome your feedback and you can reach me and my staff at 'marketing email for slot related comments', we would love to hear back from you if you liked or disliked Bob’s recommendation.”
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List of issues to consider.
This information has been used by me in my career and experiences. It has been written solely from my experiences having over 25 years’ experience in gaming related to slot machines management.
© 2018 Darrin Pachman, All Rights Reserved
Darrin Pachman
Email: [email protected]
Bagarious
Hi there everyone, first post here so don't be rough :) CrystalMath
At our company we are currently building a simple slot machine as a mini game for giving players incentives for our yet to be released app. After some investigation I realized that, apart from calculating the RTP percentage, it would be nice to also calculate the Volatility Index (VI). I've seen various documents on the web that state that for calculating this VI, it's necessary first to obtain the Standard Deviation for the Slot Machine. We are able to simulate all plays on the slot machine and record all pays. Correct me if I'm wrong please, but to calculate the Standard Deviation you have to first obtain the mean of all the machine pays for the lowest bet possible? In our case that would be 1 credit and 1 line. Is this a correct assumption? We have tried to calculate the standard deviation using simulations with 20 credits and 20 lines, and we always get a number between 200-300 (!). When we run the simulations using 1 credit and 1 line, we get a Standard Deviation of 9, which multiplied by 1.65 (90% confidence) gives us a VI of 15, which seems a bit high but entirely reasonable. On the other hand, I have tried dividing the 200-300 number by 40 (20 credits x 20 lines), in a surely misguided attempt at getting a reasonable number. We are a very small independent team where I'm the only programmer and often play the part of confused mathematician. I appreciate any help I can get. Thanks!
Thanks for this post from:
For regulatory purposes, you will usually calculate the volatility for a single line. This is pretty much useless except that people want it.
When I simulate the game to get the standard deviation for more lines, I just simulate it at 1 credit per line. Track the following stats: CI = coin in (games*lines) CO = coin out (total win) SS = sum of squared wins. For each game, calculate the total win and then square it. Variance = (SS - CO^2/CI)/CI SD = (Variance)^.5
Bagarious
Hi there, thanks for your help! teliot
I'm sorry but I'm not sure I follow you, please bear with me a little. You are essentialy saying that if I had a big list with all the wins reported by the simulation, I should just divide each item of that list by LINES and the proceed with regular variance calculations? For example, simulation with 1 credit and 20 lines: wins = [20, 100, 0, 40, ..] -> Standard Deviation = 222 Dividing each value by 20 wins = [1, 5, 0, ] -> Standard Deviation = 11.1 Which is essentialy dividing the 'original' SD by 20? I got a little confused with your reformulation of variance. Why is SS sum of squared wins? Why are you not squaring this (SS - CO^2/CI)? Could you please explain how would you perform your calculations assuming I had a big list with all the wins from the simulation with 20 lines and 1 credit? Thanks
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Bagarious, don't be cheap. Hire a mathematician to do this for you, especially if you are developing a commercial product. Sheeez!
If you are a programmer but have never done slot mathematics before, you don't do it by simulation. You create a complete and exact solution using Excel. You can check your PAR excel spread sheet work by simulation. Also, 20M spins is pitifully low - don't use VBA or Java. Use C or C++ (or something similar). Aim for 1B spins. You are heading for a disaster. These have happened many times before and there are plenty of people here who are waiting to eat your mistakes for dinner. Cheers.
Bagarious
Hi teliot, thanks for your advice. I'm aware of the simulation vs exact solution problem. I don't know where you are getting the 20M spins number from :/ it's actually between 200M-300M.
I'm aiming for people here to actually notice my surely evident mistakes, I don't think there's anything wrong with trying to learn something new? I'm just wondering how to accurately calculate the volatility index for bets other than 1 credit x 1 line. Thanks.
teliot
I'm aiming for people here to actually notice my surely evident mistakes, I don't think there's anything wrong with trying to learn something new? I'm just wondering how to accurately calculate the volatility index for bets other than 1 credit x 1 line.
IMO, this is exceedingly cheap. Learn new stuff on your own. Hire a mathematician for this project.Look, I've got a Ph.D. in mathematics and am a former professor of both mathematics and computer science. That background didn't keep me from knowing I needed a professional mentor. For my first slot I hired the former lead mathematician at Bally's to mentor me. I paid a lot for that. I created the PAR and she double-checked it and gave me advice on certain parts as well as the programming. Above all else, I learned what the industry standard PARs looked like, what features they have, how they are laid out. After the first, she also helped me with tricks on more difficult issues (two-ways, exploding and expanding, etc.). It took several months for me to feel comfortable with most of the standard features that would get thrown my way. I have done dozens of PARs as an independent mathematician. Thinking you can do this yourself by asking a few questions here is different than 'learning something new.' Hire someone here (NOT ME) to do this for you, or to mentor you directly on your work. There are plenty of professionals here. You are an employee of a company that is making a commercial product for profit. It is not just *you* the curious guy. So don't play that game.
Bagarious
Contrary to what you may have assumed from my posts, we are not a company with funding, we are actually three friends trying to make a Unity app completely unrelated to slot machines on our free time, but with a slot feature. I do not intend to leech from anyone here. I was not aware that this forum frowned upon this sort of questions unless the poster intended to hire someone. If that's the case, my apologies. I'm obviously not going to get on your level by getting a silly question answered, but I admit that the slot math design subject is really interesting and I would love to learn more.
Is it wrong for hobbyists to post here? Is this forum a freelancer-like site?
CrystalMath
Contrary to what you may have assumed from my posts, we are not a company with funding, we are actually three friends trying to make a Unity app completely unrelated to slot machines on our free time, but with a slot feature. I do not intend to leech from anyone here. I was not aware that this forum frowned upon this sort of questions unless the poster intended to hire someone. If that's the case, my apologies. I'm obviously not going to get on your level by getting a silly question answered, but I admit that the slot math design subject is really interesting and I would love to learn more. Is it wrong for hobbyists to post here? Is this forum a freelancer-like site? There are people on here who would do the work for you. I used to be one of them, but I still answer an occasional question. Currently, I just don't accept work from independent game inventors, with some exceptions.
I heart Crystal Math.
CrystalMath
Thanks for this post from:
Hi there, thanks for your help! I'm sorry but I'm not sure I follow you, please bear with me a little. You are essentialy saying that if I had a big list with all the wins reported by the simulation, I should just divide each item of that list by LINES and the proceed with regular variance calculations? For example, simulation with 1 credit and 20 lines: wins = [20, 100, 0, 40, ..] -> Standard Deviation = 222 Dividing each value by 20 wins = [1, 5, 0, ] -> Standard Deviation = 11.1 Which is essentialy dividing the 'original' SD by 20? I got a little confused with your reformulation of variance. Why is SS sum of squared wins? Why are you not squaring this (SS - CO^2/CI)? Could you please explain how would you perform your calculations assuming I had a big list with all the wins from the simulation with 20 lines and 1 credit? Thanks In your example (and I'm just going to use the 4 numbers you provided): CI = 80 (20 credits per game * 4 games) CO = total win = 160 SS = 20^2 + 100^2 + 0^2 + 40^2 = 14,000 ![]() Standard Deviation = Variance ^ .5 This is a super easy method of calculating the standard deviation because you just keep a running tally of CI, CO, and SS, rather than storing a list of outcomes.
I heart Crystal Math.
Slot Volatility Index
Bagarious
CrystalMath, thank you very much. This cleared things up.
Best regards. Comments are closed.
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